Navigon 8450Klassische Autonavigationssysteme (PNDs, Personal Navigation Devices), bekommen zunehmend Konkurrenz durch Smartphones. Studien von iSuppli Corp. und In-Stat befassen sich mit der Zukunft von PNDs.

Der Kernaussagen der beiden Studien lauten:

  • iSuppli
  • PNDs werden Ende 2009 mit 114 Mio. in Gebrauch befindlichen Einheiten weiterhin den Markt für Navigationslösungen bestimmen; Smartphones kommen auf 57,8 Mio. Einheiten.
  • 2014 werden bereits 305 Mio. navigationsfähige Smartphones eingesetzt werden, PNDs kommen dann auf 128 Mio. Einheiten.
  • 2011 sollen nahezu 100% aller Smartphones GPS-Funktionalität bieten.
  • Treibende Kräfte für die steigende Akzeptanz von Smartphones als Navigationssysteme sind die zunehmende Verfügbarkeit von Anwendungen, größere Speicherkapazitäten und größere Displays und verbesserte Akkulaufzeiten.
  • Navigationsanwendungen für das iPhone treiben den Markt für die Navigation mit Smartphones.
  • Die Anzahl an PNDs von TomTom und Garmin wird sich zwischen 2009 und 2013 nicht signifikant ändern. Wachstum wird vor allem im asiatisch-pazifischen Raum erwartet.
  • In-Stat
  • Der Markt für PNDs zeigt Anzeichen einer Konsolidierung und sinkender Preise. Trotz dieser Vorgaben werden die Verkaufszahlen in den nächsten fünf Jahren steigen, allerdings recht kraftlos.
  • Treibende Kräfte sind: Sinkende Verkaufspreise, Automobilhersteller bieten zunehmend Navigationslösungen an, starkes Wachstum bei PNDs mit Internetzugang (Connected Devices).
  • 2012 werden weltweit ca. 56 Mio. PNDs ausgeliefert.
  • Die Lieferungen von Smartphones mit GPS werden sich von 2009 bis 2013 verdreifachen.

Die Mitteilungen im Original:

Smart Phones to Surpass PNDs in Navigation Market in 2014


The days of supremacy for the Portable Navigation Device (PND) in the global navigation market are coming to an end with the rise in worldwide usage of GPS-equipped smart phones in the coming years, according to iSuppli Corp. After several years of strong sales growth, PNDs will continue to lead the navigation market in 2009, with 114 million sets to be in use by the end of the year, compared to 57.8 million smart phones. However, by 2014, usage of navigation-enabled smart-phones will rise to 305 million units, exceeding the 128 million PNDs that will be around by then.

“Previously, smart phones were not seen as a threat to the dominance of PNDs due to mobile handsets’ poor battery life, unclear pricing structures and inferior interface,” said Danny Kim, global Location-Based Service (LBS) analyst for iSuppli. “However, as smart-phone design moves forward, many of these issues have been or will be resolved, leading to increased market share for navigation applications on smart phones.”

New smart-phone models are more suitable for use with navigation applications for a range of reasons, including the integration of GPS functionality, better usability, larger screens, built-in connectivity and most importantly, the flurry of applications being developed for smart phones. Other features boosting the smart-phones’ utility for navigation include better microprocessor support, higher internal flash memory and improved battery life.

iSuppli believes that in 2011, nearly 100 percent of all smart phones shipped will integrate GPS functionality.

“These features will give smart phones similar feature sets as mid-range PNDs, making them more attractive to users,” Kim said.

Apps are Everything

Another factor driving increased usage of smart-phone navigation is the launch of high-profile navigation applications from TomTom and Navigon for the iPhone.

“These new applications will make the iPhone a better match for the PNDs, diverting attention from the portable navigation devices,” Kim said. With TomTom’s announcement last week, Apple now has eight navigation applications for the iPhone—two off-board solutions and six on-board counterparts.

The initial reaction from iPhone users should be encouraging to the application suppliers. Owing to the arrival of these applications, iPhone navigation users are expected to increase to 28 million in 2013, up from just 2 million in 2009, iSuppli predicts.

The Rise and Fall of the PND

The rise of smart-phone navigation represents another milestone in the remarkable story of the PND. The starting gun for the PND market was in 2004, when the product began exceeding all expectations in growth and popularity and continued to so for several years. The year 2009 marks the dividing line when sales expansion for the PND slows as the product moves from the growth phase to the maturity stage of its life cycle. The two major PND vendors are expected to maintain very similar market shares in the PND space into 2013.

iSuppli forecasts that the number of TomTom and Garmin PNDs in use—based on a three-year life span—will not significantly change between 2009 and 2013. Any new growth in PND shipments is likely to come from the Asia-Pacific region, where past map coverage has been patchy but is improving.

Quelle: www.isuppli.com

Personal Navigation Devices Battle GPS-Enabled Handset Challenge


SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., October 12, 2009 – The personal navigation device (PND) market is showing signs of maturity as price points decline sharply, consolidation occurs, and shipment growth slows, reports In-Stat http://www.in-stat.com. In addition, the increasing competition from GPS-enabled mobile phones represents the most significant threat the PND market will face. Nevertheless, stand-alone PND sales will continue to grow over the next five years, albeit at an anemic rate.

“Drivers for continued PND market growth include average selling price declines, automobile manufacturers’ desire to offer more affordable navigation options, and the potential growth anticipated from connected PNDs,” says Stephanie Ethier, In-Stat analyst. “Connected PNDs, like the recently announced Garmin nuvi 1690, can connect to the Internet and receive dynamic information such as flight updates, gas prices, and local weather. These expensive models may be a tough sell in the current struggling economy, however.”

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

  • Worldwide unit shipments for PNDs will reach approximately 56 million units in 2012.
  • The total silicon opportunity for PNDs will pass $1 billion in 2010, before starting to decline. Processors will be the largest semiconductor segment, followed by DRAM and NAND memory.
  • Among the semiconductor competitors in this market are Broadcom, Cambridge Silicon Radio (CSR) & SiRF Technology, Inc., GloNav/NXP/STMicroelectronics/Ericsson, Infineon, Qualcomm, Samsung Electronics, and STMicroelectronics.
  • GPS-enabled mobile phone shipments will nearly triple by 2013, compared with 2009.

Quelle: www.instat.com

Die Zukunft von Autonavigationssystemen (PND) was last modified: Oktober 23rd, 2009 by Joachim Bardua
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